THE EARLY 20th century was filled with predictions that the airplane, the automobile or the assembly line had made parliamentary democracy, market economies, jury trials and bills of rights irrelevant, obsolete and harmful. Today's scientific-technological revolutions (epitomized by space shuttles and the Internet) make the technologies of the early 20th century--its fabric-winged biplanes, Tin Lizzies and "Modern Times" gearwheel factories--look like quaint relics. Yet all of the "obsolete" institutions derided by the modernists of that day thrive and strengthen. The true surprise of the scientific revolutions ahead is likely to be not the technological wonders and dangers they will bring but the robustness of the civil society institutions that will nurture them.
This may seem counterintuitive to many people. Surely novel technological capabilities require novel social institutions, right? The experience of the past century argues that the opposite is the case. Institutions tend to be modified more than replaced. They do not die out unless they demonstrate actual and substantial harm, and they adapt only as much as needed to provide a viable solution to pressing problems. We should respond to the challenges facing us by strengthening an evolving framework based on our best and most successful institutions.
